US holiday retail sales are on track to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, yet jewellery retailers may face headwinds as shoppers grow more cautious about non-essential purchases.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast released on October 15 estimates that retail sales for November and December will reach approximately $1.013 trillion, a 4.2% increase from the prior year. That would be up from the $972 billion recorded in 2025, when holiday sales rose by 3.1%.
This forecast covers broad retail activity but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. While it signals healthy overall spending, the growth is unlikely to be evenly distributed across every product category. In particular, signs point to more restrained consumer behaviour in the jewellery market.
Consumer Caution Creates Challenges for Jewellery Retailers
A September consumer survey by McKinsey & Company highlights pressure on the jewellery sector: 43% of US respondents said they planned to reduce their jewellery spending in the following three months. The survey, conducted in late July and early August, polled 4,013 consumers and suggests that jewellery could lose out to competing household priorities this holiday season.
The NRF has identified several economic headwinds that may be shaping shopper behaviour, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, higher gasoline costs and rising household debt. These factors can prompt consumers to be more price-sensitive, postpone discretionary purchases or seek greater perceived value when selecting gifts.
Mastercard Forecast Signals Broader Retail Growth
A separate outlook from the Mastercard Economics Institute, published on September 23, projected a 5.5% increase in US holiday retail sales between November 1 and December 24, excluding gasoline and automobiles. Mastercard’s analysis underscores the broader strength of seasonal spending even as individual categories face mixed prospects.
The analysis also emphasizes how concentrated spending can be late in the season. During the 2025 holiday period, more than 35% of in-store spending across jewellery, handbags, department stores and cosmetics between November 22 and December 25 occurred during the final week before Christmas. That concentration highlights the significance of last-minute shoppers for discretionary gift categories.
For jewellery retailers, these findings point to the importance of well-timed promotions, flexible purchasing options and careful inventory planning to capture demand that may peak close to the holiday deadline.
Seasonal Hiring Remains Strong
Alongside its sales projection, the NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees for the holiday period, roughly in line with the estimated 356,000 seasonal workers employed last year. This recruitment outlook suggests retailers are preparing for robust foot traffic and sales activity despite economic uncertainty.
However, overall hiring and sales figures offer a high-level view of the retail environment and should not be interpreted as a direct indicator of jewellery sales performance. The sector’s results will depend on how individual retailers respond to changing consumer priorities.
Value and Timing Could Shape Holiday Jewellery Demand
The coming holiday season presents both opportunities and risks for jewellery businesses. While strong total retail spending can support gift purchases, McKinsey’s survey suggests many consumers are likely to scale back on jewellery specifically.
To navigate these dynamics, jewellery retailers may need to offer merchandise across a wider range of price points, highlight craftsmanship and value in their marketing, and design promotions that align with shoppers’ budgets. Emphasizing convenience—such as flexible returns, gift-wrapping and timely shipping—can also help convert undecided buyers, especially during the critical final week before Christmas.
In short, current forecasts point to continued expansion in US holiday retail spending, but gains will not necessarily be uniform across categories. For the jewellery sector, consumer confidence, affordability and shifting purchase priorities will determine whether it can capture a meaningful share of the seasonal spending surge.